No recession respite as UK services stagnate - Reuters UK No recession respite as UK services stagnate - Reuters UK
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No recession respite as UK services stagnate - Reuters UK

No recession respite as UK services stagnate - Reuters UK

LONDON | Fri Jun 29, 2012 6:45pm BST

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's dominant service sector stagnated in April and an extra holiday and festivities for the Queen's Diamond Jubilee failed to lift consumers' spirits, data showed on Friday, giving little hope of an escape from recession in the second quarter.

The gloomy news strengthens expectations the Bank of England will restart its printing presses when it meets next week and provide further stimulus to an economy that sank back into recession around the turn of the year.

Output in the services sector -- which ranges from banks to hotels to airlines and accounting for some three quarters of output -- was flat on the month after growing 0.6 percent in March, the Office for National Statistics said, offering the first official glimpse of how the sector fared in the second quarter.

"Flat services output in April is another blow to hopes that the economy may have avoided further contraction," said Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight.

The central bank has warned that the economy may shrink again in the current quarter because the extra holiday for the Jubilee would hit manufacturers and many service firms' output.

Purchasing managers' surveys are a bit more upbeat than the data. They suggest that Britain's service sector grew at a steady pace in May but manufacturing output braked sharply. Reports for June next week are expected to paint a similar picture.

But after a shock contraction in the first three months of 2012 pushed the economy back into recession economists see tepid growth ahead at best, with only a mild bounce next quarter from London's hosting of the Olympic Games and the subsequent tourism and ticket sales.

Faced with a struggling economy the Bank is expected to flood the market with another 50 billion pounds of cash next week as falling inflation gives it more room to manoeuvre.

BLACK CLOUD

Having slashed rates to rock bottom the Bank has already pumped 325 billion pounds into the economy through its quantitative easing asset-buying programme, designed to stimulate growth by cutting long-term lending costs.

But bank governor Mervyn King has warned that a "black cloud of uncertainty" was keeping businesses and consumers from spending, while driving up banks' funding costs.

"Uncertainty and tighter credit conditions have acted as strong headwinds to our recovery," King said in a media conference presenting the BoE' financial stability report.

The central bank said regulators would ease liquidity requirements for banks, in order to allow for more lending. In addition the government and the central bank are launching a scheme to provide cheaper funding to banks.

The government and the Bank hoped falling inflation, which eased to 2.8 percent in May, would provide more households with the scope to increase spending this year but the main drag on services output was a 2.4 percent slump in retail output.

Britons have been cutting back spending in the wake of the 2008/2009 slump after unemployment rose and high inflation ate away meagre wage increases while unusually cold and wet weather in April kept shoppers from buying summer clothes.

Consumers were more amenable to buying bigger items such as furniture or electrical goods this month but their assessment of the economic outlook worsened, a survey showed.

Researchers GfK NOP's headline consumer confidence index held steady at minus 29 in June. "The stagnant level of consumer confidence suggests that the public is stuck in a period of constant depression," said Nick Moon, managing director of GfK NOP Social Research.

Britain's biggest department store group John Lewis meanwhile continued to defy the gloom, posting another strong rise in weekly sales, driven by strong demand for technology products and the start of its clearance sale.

(Additional reporting by Sven Egenter. Editing by Jeremy Gaunt.)



Congress, BJP can’t connect with young Indian voters - Gulf News

The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to have a tryst with doom. In the wake of scams and scandals in the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, the BJP was gaining ground. Its performance in parliament was comparatively better and its younger leadership assertive. But once again old Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) men have brought the party back to square one.

First, Gujarat Chief Minister Narender Modi crossed swords with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on the concept of secularism. Then the RSS played the Hindutva card. Both have scotched even the remotest chance of the BJP returning to power. Modi, a person who has his hands tainted with the blood of Muslims, cannot be projected as India’s next prime minister.

The BJP has, by and large, remained quiet. One of its leaders spoke out of turn and questioned the very concept of secularism, but he was hushed up quickly. It seems that the party did delude itself with the idea that the Hindu voters were beginning to own the RSS philosophy. The BJP should have learnt the lesson in 2009 when it was all set to win, but lost to the Congress.

Political parties, including the Congress, do not understand the mostly young new electorate. It is liberal in outlook and hates to mix religion with politics. This was the ethos that the nation adopted during the independence struggle and after freedom under the leadership of Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru and Maulana Abdul Kalam Azad.

True, regional chauvinism is rearing its ugly head. This is because the Centre looks confused when it comes to policies which demand secular credentials. Receiving little feedback from the field, New Delhi continues to monopolise power and fails to appreciate that decentralisation would infuse life among the people in a state. Regional aspirations have gained a new edge and the locals are fired with confidence that they can sort out their problems themselves and find a consensus quicker than a remote New Delhi can.

This is the reason why parties like the Trinamool Congress and Samajwadi Party won in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh respectively. The voters found the parties closer to them and more sympathetic to their problems. Even if these regional parties do not give them a better administration the people are not likely to go back to all-India parties which they have found failing them again and again. They may try another party within the region because they are getting convinced that all-India parties are not an answer to their problems of appalling living conditions.

The idea of India may be pushed further into the background. There may be insurgents and separatists in certain areas to assert the identity of their caste or community, believing that, in the affairs of all-India politics, they may get lost. Much would depend on how New Delhi handles the situation. The Sarkaria Commission on Centre-State relations has become outdated. Had its recommendations been implemented when the report came out more than two decades ago, the demand by the states to have more powers might not have arisen. The Centre has to curtail the subjects it has, either voluntarily or through a Constitutional amendment. Apart from defence, foreign affairs and overall financial planning, New Delhi should not have more subjects. Once it decentralises its power it should ensure that the decentralisation goes all the way, from the state capital to the district and then to the Panchayat so that people themselves participate in governance.

The Congress, the BJP and the Left would have problems. The Left does not seem to bother because it is dictatorial in its working. The CPM ousted a member from the party even though he had resigned after supporting Pranab Mukherjee, the Congress Party’s presidential candidate. Yet both the Congress and the BJP need to handle their members carefully. Even when a state chief minister speaks out of turn, he has to be brought around as has been the case with Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan, although he is a creature of Congress president Sonia Gandhi.

The BJP faces a bigger problem because it rules in twice the number of states as the Congress does. Leave Modi apart — he is a bull in the China shop — the chief ministers in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka are too tall to tame. They are leaders of their own communities and command wide influence.

Both parties would have great difficulty for the 2014 election, first in choosing the top person and then tackling him or her. Take for example the BJP, it is already wooing Vasundheraraje Scindia, former chief minister, who thumbed the party and stayed in the wilderness because she was sure that the central BJP would one day come to her and accept her authoritarian leadership.

Problems of the Congress on this count are negligible. Sonia has all the authority. That Rahul Gandhi, her son, should be nominated as number two has already been done. There is no dissidence and she alone, more so after the departure of Pranab Mukherjee, has the confidence of allies in the UPA she chairs.

The BJP would need more and more assistance of RSS to sort out difficulties with the state leaders. Realising this, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has announced that Modi has all the qualifications to become India’s new prime minister. However, this has naturally infuriated the BJP’s main ally, Janata Dal (United). Its President Sharad Pawar has said that if Modi is the prime minister candidate, the JD (UP) would quit the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

What is wrong with having a Hindutva prime minister, questions Bhagwat. This question itself shows how RSS lives in a world of it own and does not face the reality of secular India. For the BJP, already a divided house, the confusion is more confounded. It realises that the country can never be ruled through a communal agenda. Even former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee realised this and always put his liberal foot forward. He refused to oust his principal secretary Brijesh Mishra despite the pressure of RSS. But then the BJP’s problem is that it does not have a tall person like Vajpayee to withstand the pressure of RSS.

— Kuldip Nayar is a former Indian high commissioner to the United Kingdom and a former Rajya Sabha member.



McIlroy avoids more weekend woe - ESPN.co.uk

Leaderboard

Rory McIlroy avoided falling into the trap of a fifth missed cut in six starts with a 69 at the Irish Open on Friday.

The world No. 2, playing in his native Northern Ireland, moved to five-under overall at Royal Portrush. He is in a share of 17th; the top 65 and ties go through to the final 36 holes.

Playing in his final event before the Open Championship next month at Royal Lytham & St Annes, McIlroy will be glad of the chance to get four completed rounds under his belt.

He shot a 61 at Portrush as a 16-year-old - but, at the first staging of the event in Northern Ireland since 1953, he has largely been below his best in front of an expectant home crowd.

Starting on the back nine on Friday, he birdied the par-five tenth, as well as the par-fours at 12 and 16, with one bogey before reaching the turn. That was a promising platform for the Ulsterman, but he could not finish his round with much of a flourish, signing for a one-under front nine.

Nonetheless, despite having previously criticised links golf, he proved he can navigate windy conditions by battling hard in County Antrim, which is sure to serve him well at the Open.

Meanwhile, Darren Clarke, who will be defending the title at Royal Lytham, used the familiarity of the surroundings - he owns a house close to Portrush - to propel him to a 69 (four-under overall). The Ulsterman's season has mostly been a miserable one, so this was a welcome turnaround: he played the back nine in three-under, then the front nine in level par, with two bogeys and two birdies.

Lorenzo Gagli, the world No. 211 from Italy, was the clubhouse leader at ten-under midway through day two, having posted a 66.

Two other Irish major winners in the field, Padraig Harrington and Graeme McDowell, will start their rounds later on Friday.

© ESPN EMEA Ltd


'Devastated' Cook gives up on Olympic dream - ESPN.co.uk

Aaron Cook has finally given up on his dream of competing at London 2012, announcing on Friday that he will not take his case against the British Olympic Association [BOA] to the High Court.

Cook was left out of the Team GB Olympic squad by British Taekwondo, a move Cook has always maintained was due to his decision to prepare outside of the system.

The world No. 1 at the -80kg weight category had hoped the BOA could step in and order Cook's selection, but the governing body did not feel it right to do so. Cook has since asked for his case to be heard at the Court of Arbitration for Sport [CAS], but the BOA rejected the request.

That left Cook with only one remaining option, to take his case to the High Court, but both time and funding is against him. An emotional statement has now confirmed he will give up his fight.

"After careful consideration over the last few weeks, and despite my representatives advising me that I still had a good chance of successfully overturning the BOA's ratification of Great Britain Taekwondo's decision not to select me for London 2012, I have decided not to take my case against the BOA to the High Court," Cook said.

"The financial implications for me, and, more importantly, for my parents, of doing so are too prohibitive.

"I am really disappointed that the BOA did not agree to my case being heard at the Court of Arbitration for Sport. It is the specialist forum for sports-related matters. The High Court is significantly more expensive, time-consuming and does not have the experience or expertise in dealing with sports-related disputes.

"The World Taekwondo Federation [WTF] is currently conducting a review of British Taekwondo's selection process. It has already publicly stated that the selection process has brought the sport into disrepute due to a perceived lack of transparency.

"I welcome this investigation but I am hugely disappointed that the WTF has now indicated that it will not finalise the review and findings in time for London 2012. This is particularly disappointing as the BOA had reserved the right to reconsider its decision to ratify Great Britain Taekwondo's nomination in light of the WTF's findings.

"In the best interests of Team GB, I have decided not to take up the offer to be first reserve for London 2012. Clearly it would be hugely difficult for me to work with their coaches in view of what has happened in the last few weeks. I wish all of the athletes the very best of luck - that includes Lutalo Muhammad.

"I love my country. I love my sport. I don't think that I could have done any more in terms of my performance. I will sit down with my team though and consider my best way forward in the coming months.

"I have nothing more to say at this stage. I will not be doing any media interviews. The Olympics, and especially a home Olympics, would have been the pinnacle of my career. I feel totally devastated."

© ESPN EMEA Ltd


BlackBerry to make 5,000 job cuts and delays phone launch - Marketing

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BlackBerry maker Research in Motion (RIM) is to axe 5,000 jobs from its global workforce as it reveals a further delay of the launch of its next generation of smartphones. The swingeing jobs cuts which are expected to run across the business represent 30% ...

EU deal for Spain, Italy buoys markets but details sketchy - Reuters UK

BRUSSELS | Fri Jun 29, 2012 7:50pm BST

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Under pressure to prevent a catastrophic breakup of their single currency, euro zone leaders agreed on Friday to let their rescue fund inject aid directly into stricken banks from next year and intervene on bond markets to support troubled member states.

They also pledged to create a single banking supervisor for euro zone banks based around the European Central Bank in a landmark first step towards a European banking union that could help shore up struggling member Spain.

"It is a first step to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns," European Council President Herman Van Rompuy told a final news conference after talks which stretched right through the night.

The deal was widely seen as a political victory for embattled Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and his Spanish counterpart, Mariano Rajoy, over German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had brushed aside any need for such emergency measures earlier this week.

ECB President Mario Draghi endorsed the "tangible results", which sent the euro nearly 2 percent higher and sharply cut Spanish and Italian bond yields. European shares rose, led by banking stocks buoyed by the prospect of moves to backstop the financial system.

"I am actually quite pleased with the outcome of the European Council. It showed the long-term commitment to the euro by all member states of the euro area," Draghi told reporters.

Market participants welcomed the outcome as a substantial step to restore confidence in the 17-nation euro zone, which was saluted by a more durable rally than previous summit outcomes.

"It's inching closer to a banking union, and the closer we get to a banking union would put (the EU) well on the road to a fiscal union," said Art Hogan, managing director of Lazard Capital Markets in New York.

Most economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to cut borrowing costs at its July 5 meeting, which takes place against a darkening economic backdrop. But internal resistance to the central bank reviving its bond-buying programme remains high.

After 14 hours of tense talks that ended at 4.30 a.m. (0230 GMT), the 17 leaders agreed on a series of short-term steps to shore up their monetary union and bring down the borrowing costs of Spain and Italy, seen as too big to bail out.

To that end the euro zone's temporary EFSF and permanent ESM rescue funds will be used "in a flexible and efficient manner in order to stabilise markets" to support countries that comply with EU budget policy recommendations, a joint statement said.

It gave few specifics, but euro zone officials said the funds could buy bonds on both the primary and secondary markets on the basis of a memorandum of understanding signed with the requesting state and up to a funding limit to be agreed.

Both Italy and Spain said they did not intend to call on that mechanism to stabilise markets for now, hoping the Brussels agreement will serve as a sufficient deterrent.

Washington said it was encouraged by the progress but White House press secretary Jay Carney told reporters travelling with President Barack Obama that "a lot of details" still needed to be worked out, and the euro zone was likely to need to take further steps in the future.

The International Monetary Fund said the summit had taken "the right steps toward completing monetary union" while ratings agency Fitch said the deal eased near-term pressure on euro zone sovereign ratings.

UNTHINKABLE DECISIONS

In a key concession by EU paymaster Germany, the leaders agreed to waive the ESM's preferred creditor status on lending for Spanish banks, removing a key deterrent to investors buying Spanish government bonds, who feared having to take the first losses in any debt restructuring.

"We have taken decisions that were unthinkable just some months ago," European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said.

Despite the concessions by Berlin allowing euro zone rescue funds to be used more flexibly, questions remained about the terms, size and supervision of any future aid for Spain and Italy.

There was also no commitment for now to back up a European bank supervisor with a joint deposit guarantee or a common resolution fund, to avert capital flight and taxpayer losses. However, one EU official said that letting the ESM lend directly to banks once the supervisory body is up and running was a backdoor route to closer fiscal union.

Monti, determined to avoid the political stigma of the bailout terms imposed on Greece, Ireland and Portugal, said countries that complied with EU budget recommendations would not face extra austerity conditions or be subject to intrusive inspections by a "troika" of international lenders.

Eager to avoid the impression that she had blinked first, Merkel said strict conditionality would still apply to the use of rescue funds and countries would face stringent monitoring by the EU Commission and the ECB.

Asked if she had yielded to pressure, she said: "There is clearly pressure from financial markets. Some countries are in a difficult situation. The high interest rates affect the debt but also the real economy. We had an interest in finding solutions."

Merkel reaffirmed her firm opposition to common euro zone bonds.

The Spanish and Italian leaders had threatened to block a package of measures to promote growth to pressure her to accept measures to ease their borrowing costs, delaying the talks.

New French President Francois Hollande backed their calls for bold steps to help the bloc's third and fourth biggest economies, adding to the pressure on Merkel.

Hollande, who had demanded a renegotiation of the fiscal pact to switch Europe's focus from austerity to promoting growth, said he had achieved satisfaction at the summit and would now submit the treaty to parliament for ratification.

While Hollande could claim a step forward in "solidarity", Merkel achieved little immediate progress on her demands for EU authorities to be given the power to override national budgets and economic policies. The issue was kicked down the road to October, when top EU officials led by Van Rompuy will deliver a more detailed report.

CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM

Economists applauded both the short-term measures to steady markets and the longer-term direction, saying that for once, after 20 summits since the crisis began in early 2010, euro zone leaders had exceeded admittedly low expectations.

"I think the ECB being made the banking supervisor is actually the biggest long-term step because it points the way to banking union," said Megan Greene, analyst at Roubini Global Economics, which is often gloomy about the euro zone's future.

"The move to recapitalise banks directly is a big deal and will help to break the ‘vicious circle' between banks and sovereigns that has been at the very heart of this crisis," said ABN AMRO economist Nick Kounis, although he added that the euro zone remained "in a muddling-through scenario".

The ESM's ability to inject capital directly into banks will come too late to help Spain recapitalise its debt-laden lenders immediately this year, but it should allow Madrid to remove the cleanup from state books next year, euro zone officials said.

Merkel said finance ministers would have to work out whether the state or the banks would be legally responsible for repayment of the loans thereafter.

Some analysts were more sceptical about the benefits of the deal, given the level of detail left open.

Ireland, which had to take an EU/IMF bailout in 2010 after suffering a similar bank meltdown and property bust to Spain, hailed the decisions as a "game changer", saying it would seek similarly favourable conditions for its own taxpayers.

(Additional reporting by Jan Strupczewski, Julien Toyer, John O'Donnell, Catherine Bremer and Francesco Guarascio in Brussels. Writing by Noah Barkin and Paul Taylor, editing by Mike Peacock)



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